[[14-02-2022]] What i understand about the current event. Russia felt threatened by NATO expansion. Demand NATO to stop expansion. View that Ukraine belong to Russia. To be a buffer between the "west" and Russia. Russia may also need an external enemy to direct attention from domestic politics. Ukraine want sovereignty. But a part of it's people feel part of Russia. Ukraine want to join NATO. (Language, kins, and ties.) The US stoking up tension. US policy is, as long as there is chaos and disorder, it take advantage of them. A good excuse to build up forces in the region. If a war break out, it will be its advantage. President also want to be seen strong, war leader. European - Don't have a uniform approach/policy towards Russia? Some leaders receive benefits from Russia.. become board members of big Russia companies? They depend on US for it's defence. France - President election coming soon. Want to exert, to be seen as leader for EU. China - Just don't involve me! Need to focus on domestic issues. Prediction. - IF there is a war, it will be a short war. US sanctions - Some reason to de-escalate. (So all sides can interpret like they have won something.) Really lots of ego. What does this benefit? - So call nationalistic pride? --- [[28-02-2022]] Didn't really believe that Putin will invade Ukraine in such a full scale attack. I feel sorry for the young Russian soldiers who may not even want to be there, or know what's happening. Many seems to be really young. I admire the Ukrainian people's fighting spirit who are fighting for their country. So i heard that the Western powers are imposing tougher economic sanctions on Russia now. But can't be involved directly with military, risk escalating into World War 3. What is the end game? 1. Can't allow a big country to have precedent to invade smaller countries without consequences right? China is watching and learning. 2. Russian people revolt against Putin? Unlikely... 3. Russia occupy Eastern Ukraine for years, continuous unrest for years to come, kind of a buffer between NATO and Russia. 4. Russia take over capital, Ukraine exile government, while Russia install a puppet government. 5. Ukraine join NATO, that will mean WW3. 6. Cyber warfare, disruption of services/trades, make every one suffer...